Japanese beer is experiencing a silent avalanche.

In 1994, alcohol consumption reached its peak, but now sales have only reached 60% of that. The World Health Organization (WHO) has continuously exerted pressure on alcohol consumption, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has issued guidelines on daily alcohol consumption limits. What is even more fatal is that young people are not drinking anymore, tastes have diversified, the population is decreasing, and the frequency of alcohol consumption has been continuously reduced.

Hearing this, you might think that this is the story of a century-old store that is struggling to survive.

But if you really go to the scene, you will find that it's not like that at all.

Last month, our 504th Japanese large consumer group visited the Kirin Brewery Yokohama Factory (push notification link>> It doesn't raise prices when others do, and expands when others close down. This trip to Japan left me stunned). It coincided with the 100th anniversary of the Yokohama Factory's establishment. The first sentence uttered by Mr. Fujiwara, the factory representative who received us, made us pause - "We can no longer rely solely on beer (in the domestic market)."

Coming from the mouth of a century-old beer brand, this remark is akin to a steamed bun seller saying, "We can't just make flour-based foods anymore." But what's even more surprising is that after making this remark, the response plan he presented is completely unlike the approach expected from an "old-fashioned" enterprise.

Wow, this is not a century-old factory, but clearly a transformer disguised as a beer company.

01. Starting with a 20% market share, still "challenging" after 100 years

First, let me share a little-known fact: Although the Kirin Yokohama factory is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year, its origins are far from being "privileged".

When the factory was established in 1926, Kirin's market share was only about 20%. What does that mean? It means that out of five people drinking alcohol in the market, only one would choose you.

However, during his introduction, Fujiwara repeatedly emphasized one word - "challenge". To evolve from a 20% market share to a mainstream brand, it is not due to some unexpected opportunity, but rather the unceasing self-improvement over the past century.

But to be honest, when the bus drove into the factory area, our first impression was: this factory is indeed old.

The factory moved to its current location in 1991 and has been operating for 35 years. Its equipment is nearing the large-scale renewal cycle. The factory area is not impressive, and the buildings exude a sense of the Heisei era, which makes them seem somewhat plain compared to the fully automated new factories in China.

But it is this "old, shabby, and small" place that hides a whole set of terrifying layouts.

The factory has a dedicated research institute responsible for the research and development of products, containers, and contents. What does it mean? The production and R&D ends are closely integrated, allowing R&D achievements to be directly implemented on the production line. This "research-production integration" efficiency has eluded many domestic peers despite their advocacy for a decade.

What is even more unexpected is that, in the face of aging equipment and shrinking labor force, Qilin did not choose to lay low, but instead took the opportunity to refurbish all equipment and embed it with ICT and AI.

When Fujihara said this, his tone was calm, but as soon as the translation came out, the Chinese entrepreneurs present all sat up straight: "Our goal is to maintain the same production capacity with fewer manpower."

Japan's labor force is continuously shrinking, making it impossible to rely on sheer numbers anymore. Everyone understands this principle, but when uttered by a century-old brewery, it carries more impact than any consulting report.

02. The three "not doing one's proper work" are the real trump cards

If we only focus on the equipment, Kirin can at most be considered as a "diligent old factory".

What truly made this visit worthwhile was the three strategic directions introduced by Fujihara. After listening, some people on the scene exclaimed, "This is no longer just a beer company."

The first trick is to make beer "expensive".

In addition to its main product line, Kirin has launched craft beer. The key words are "small-scale production + craftsmanship persistence", and the pricing is significantly higher than that of its industrial line.

This move is quite clever. Amidst the broader trend of consumption downgrade, the overall volume of beer is declining, but the number of people willing to pay more for quality is actually increasing. Instead of competing with cheap beer on price, it's better to move upscale.

The second trick is to make "beer without alcohol".

It sounds like nonsense, but the logic behind it is too clever.

If young people aren't drinking beer, it's not because they don't like the taste, but because they don't like alcohol. So I removed the alcohol and only kept the flavor - ビールテイストノンアルコール (Beer Flavor Non-Alcoholic Drink).

This is equivalent to directly opening up another market for "non-beer drinkers". There's no need to clash with the WHO or play hide-and-seek with the National Health Commission, and it also takes advantage of the growth dividend of non-alcoholic beverages.

How ingenious is this move? It's akin to a tobacco company starting to sell e-cigarettes - a sin that has been reviled for decades suddenly becomes a pioneer in "harm reduction".

The third move is even more ingenious: simply stop selling alcohol.

In 2024, Kirin acquired Fancl. Yes, the same Fancl that specializes in health food and cosmetics. We didn't manage to find out how much it cost, but the internal assessment at Kirin is clear: this is not just a side venture, but a "second pillar of business" alongside beer.

What does Fancl have? Healthy food ingredients, independent sales channels, and a large number of female users. What does Kirin have? A century-old brand reputation, beverage research and development capabilities, and a shrinking beer core business.

You can savor it, and savor it carefully.

A beer seller acquired a health food seller and then told you, "Our future direction is to safeguard health.".

Ten years ago, this logic would have been roundly criticized by investors. Today, with the WHO keeping a close eye on alcohol and young people turning to health KOLs, this turnaround can be regarded as a textbook-level "change of track".

The entire symposium lasted only 26 minutes, but the information density from these three directions was sufficient to digest for a whole month.

03. "Yifan Zha" has become a hit in China, but this is what we should really be worried about

At the symposium, Chinese entrepreneurs were exceptionally active in asking questions. Everyone was concerned about one topic: the Chinese market.

Fujiwara's answer was both humble and confident.

"Yifan Zha" has received extremely high praise in China, with sales consistently rising. Just how high? The production capacity can't keep up.

Kirin is expanding its production system, and the sales department is in intensive discussions with Chinese channel partners. Fujihara even directly revealed, "Let's first make it big in China and then expand to the whole world."

The Chinese market serves as the first springboard for Kirin's global expansion.

He also mentioned the pricing logic: maintaining a high-quality image, adopting a relatively stable pricing policy, and not easily reducing prices. Taking "high evaluation" as the anchor, they support "high pricing".

Does it sound familiar? This is exactly the same path that Japanese home appliances and cars took when they entered the Chinese market in earlier years - first establishing a reputation for quality, then seeking premium pricing through branding, and then expanding channels and scale.

An audience member at the event drew three exclamation marks on his notebook, which clearly indicated that it was not the Chinese market itself but the quality control system of Kirin that was impressive.

Someone on the scene asked how the overseas factories could ensure quality. Fujihara's answer was truly admirable: The equipment, water, and raw materials in overseas factories cannot be exactly the same as those in Japan. Their approach is to ship the finished products back to Japan, conduct blind tests to compare them with Japanese products, identify any differences, and then adjust the formula in reverse.

You see, it's not about the empty talk of "global unified standards", but about acknowledging differences and then addressing them.

Including the licensed production of Heineken, it must also undergo approval of the entire production process by the Japanese headquarters, and only after confirmation can mass production commence. This obsession with quality is deeply ingrained in Japanese manufacturing.

Before the symposium ended, there was another noteworthy detail. An entrepreneur inquired about the popularity of private brands and joint development in the domestic market, noting that discount stores like Sam's Club customize their own private label (PB) products. He asked if Kirin had a similar approach in Japan?

Fujiwara cited two cases: the limited-edition products of Ito Yokado and several limited-edition collaborations of AEON in Tokyo.

But he immediately emphasized a key point: Kirin has independent sales departments, and the factory level does not directly engage in sales, but is only responsible for ensuring good quality.

For a hundred years, we have been dedicated to one thing: quality.

04. It's not a myth, don't scare yourself

Having said all this, we must pour a basin of cold water.

Firstly, it remains to be seen whether Fancl can pull off this move. The competition in the health food and cosmetics sectors is no less fierce than that in the beer industry, and Kirin is a complete newcomer in this field. Historically, there have been far more cases of old brands failing with new business synergies than those succeeding.

Secondly, how long can the high growth of the Chinese market last? The current positioning of Yifan Zha is "high quality + high pricing", but in the Chinese beer market, the price war among the top players has never stopped. When growth slows down, it will be a test for Kirin to resist the temptation of price reduction.

Thirdly, and most fundamentally: Is today's Japanese consumer market the future of China's consumer market?

Population decline, changes in consumption habits among young people, and a continuous decline in alcohol consumption - these three trends are merely a matter of time in China, rather than a question of whether they will occur.

When that day really arrives, are China's consumer goods enterprises ready?

The inspiration from Kirin is not about "a century-old company is impressive", but a more straightforward question: what do you do when your main business reaches its peak?

Qilin's choice is to redefine "who I am".

It is no longer a beer company, but a company that "delivers joy". To achieve this, it can sell craft beer, non-alcoholic beverages, acquire Fancl, and venture into health and medical aesthetics.

This answer deserves serious consideration by every Chinese business manager who is struggling to survive in the saturated market.

On the return bus, an entrepreneur said the most memorable sentence of the trip: "The (old equipment) is a problem, but it's also a challenge."

From a 20% market share in 1926 to a supply shortage in China in 2026, what truly stands out about Kirin's century-long history is not just its survival, but its choice to take the hardest path every time it was pushed to the wall by the times - no price reduction, no lying down, and no acceptance of fate.

The ultimate solution for beer sales may not lie in selling more beer, but rather in enabling people to lead a good life without the need to drink.